The environment was barely mentioned at all during the 2012 presidential race鈥攏o one seemed to think it was a winning issue. Yet in his acceptance speech, President Obama hinted that he was now keen to focus on climate change. 鈥淲e want our children to live in an America,鈥 he declared, 鈥渢hat isn鈥檛 threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet.鈥 That Hurricane Sandy had just swamped New York City seemed a reminder that climate policy had been neglected for too long.
Experts warn that taking major action on issues like global warming will be difficult so long as Republicans and Democrats are split in Congress. Still, says Mike Daulton, 探花精选鈥檚 vice president of government relations, 鈥淭here are opportunities for stronger regulation of greenhouse gases.鈥
For one, the can use its existing authority to push forward with a variety of pollution rules crafted during Obama鈥檚 first term. Fuel-economy standards for cars and some trucks will rise to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025, cutting U.S. oil use by two million barrels per day over the coming decades. Likewise, new standards for toxic air pollutants such as mercury from power plants are unlikely to be repealed now that Obama has been reelected. As a result, utilities are expected to retire up to one-quarter of coal-fired power plants by 2016, replacing them largely with cleaner-burning natural gas.
The EPA could also take a number of new steps in Obama鈥檚 second term. These include standards for ground-level ozone pollution, regulating coal ash pits, and tougher low-sulfur gasoline rules. Crucially, the agency will have to decide how best to regulate greenhouse gases from existing power plants and refineries. Many of these rules had been postponed until after the election.
鈥淥bama was far too timid in his first term on many of these things,鈥 says Frank O鈥橠onnell, president of . On issues like the ozone standard, the agency was often reined in by political advisers wary of running afoul of swing states like Ohio. The big question is whether the EPA will now take action; so far it鈥檚 given little indication.
The White House will also have to make several crucial calls on domestic energy development. The Keystone XL pipeline, which would carry oil from Canada鈥檚 tar sands to the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to come up for another review in 2013. Environmentalists are pushing for greater federal regulation of natural-gas fracking. The oil industry wants to expand exploration off Alaska鈥檚 coast. And Obama will have to work with Congress to extend a tax credit for wind power that has bolstered the industry.
All these issues combined, however, make only modest progress on climate change. A recent analysis by found that the United States could cut its carbon emissions 16.3 percent from 2005 levels by 2020鈥攁ssuming the EPA imposes strict new rules. That鈥檚 roughly in line with what Obama promised at the Copenhagen talks in 2009. But in the long term, shifting the country toward cleaner energy will take continued and drastic action by Congress.
On that front, Obama is likely to continue to be stymied. 鈥淲hatever the president puts forward,鈥 former White House adviser Joseph Aldy said in October, 鈥渢he Republicans know that their position is the opposite of what he鈥檚 supported.鈥
One area where Democrats and Republicans might find common ground is land conservation and expanding public lands, Daulton says.
鈥淚 don鈥檛 think there鈥檚 a clear path for climate legislation just yet,鈥 says Daulton. 鈥淏ut that doesn鈥檛 mean there couldn鈥檛 be a lot of renewed discussion and momentum.鈥 At the very least, Obama no longer has anything to lose by trying.
This story originally ran in the January-February 2013 issue as "Second Chances."