There鈥檚 going to be plenty of hullabaloo this February when the Supreme Court hears a case on a greenhouse-gas permitting program for industrial facilities. But that鈥檚 merely a prelude to a much bigger, far more controversial crackdown that could come this summer鈥攐ne with substantial implications for the health of humans and wildlife alike. By June the Obama administration plans to put forward rules to limit carbon dioxide emissions from the nation鈥檚 1,600 existing coal- and gas-fired plants. That鈥檚 a huge step: They鈥檙e responsible for roughly 40 percent of America鈥檚 carbon dioxide emissions.
The Supreme Court has already ruled the EPA must regulate carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases if it finds they endanger public health (most scientists agree they do). Pumping them unchecked into the atmosphere will likely lead to more heat waves and drought. Sea levels will keep rising. Lyme disease and West Nile virus could continue spreading. Given what鈥檚 at stake, environmentalists are watching closely to see whether the EPA will tinker at the margins or throw its full force behind the rules. 鈥淐limate change is the single greatest threat to birds,鈥 says Mike Daulton, 探花精选鈥檚 vice president of government relations. 鈥淓PA鈥檚 regulation of existing power plants is the single most meaningful thing that can be done now to attack the problem.鈥
It鈥檚 a critical moment, environmentalists say, one that may not come up again鈥攅specially under another president. 鈥淚f we鈥檙e going to make any meaningful progress on climate, it very much matters how strong these rules are,鈥 agrees Mary Anne Hitt, director of the Sierra Club鈥檚 Beyond Coal campaign.
These rules may also be President Obama鈥檚 last chance to fulfill a key promise made in Copenhagen in 2009鈥攖o cut U.S. greenhouse-gas emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. To date the EPA has tightened fuel-economy rules for vehicles, and set strict limits on carbon pollution from future power plants. Energy emissions have actually fallen nearly 12 percent since 2005, due largely to the economic downturn. But as the economy has rebounded, emissions are rising again. A modest tweak to the existing fleet won鈥檛 get us to the 2020 goal.
That鈥檚 why everyone is watching the EPA so closely. It could go small and merely ask plants to adopt slightly more efficient technology. Brian Potts, an environmental law specialist at Foley & Lardner, thinks the agency will nudge power plant emissions down just 5 percent by 2020 at the most.
Or it could go all out. There鈥檚 a feeling in the environmental community that the time for timidity is long gone. 鈥淲e think the agency should push for the biggest reductions possible at reasonable cost,鈥 says David Doniger, policy director of the climate and clean air program for the Natural Resources Defense Council. He argues that the EPA has far more flexibility than many observers assume, since it will be working under an untested portion of the Clean Air Act (Section 111(d)). 鈥淚f their interpretation is reasonable, then it will be upheld.鈥
The NRDC is pushing a plan that it says will hold up in court and could cut U.S. power plant emissions 26 percent by 2020. The EPA would set overall emissions limits for each state, allowing utilities to meet those goals through various measures, from adopting more efficient technologies to switching over to cleaner sources like solar and wind.
Another option is a carbon tax, says Adele Morris, policy director of the Brookings Institution鈥檚 Climate and Energy Economics Project. Under her scheme, the EPA would offer states multiple options to meet standards, including excise taxes on the carbon content of power plant fuels. This would shift the focus from performance targets鈥攍ike cutting emissions relative to a historic level鈥攖o an economic bottom line, which she says would help the rest of the world realize that the United States is serious about climate change. 鈥淭hese regulations are going to be the centerpiece of [Obama鈥檚] whole agenda,鈥 says Morris. 鈥淲e鈥檙e supposed to be negotiating a new climate treaty in 2015, and this could be the highlight of what the U.S. has to offer.鈥
Whatever the plan, there鈥檚 bound to be a backlash. The EPA has come under fire from industry groups and various states for its existing carbon regulations. So far it鈥檚 fended off these challenges. But if it gets too aggressive or creative, it runs the risk of losing a future lawsuit. 鈥淧retty much everything the EPA does entails some legal risk,鈥 says Nathan Richardson, a legal scholar at Resources for the Future. 鈥淪ome approaches are riskier than others.鈥
It鈥檚 a chance the EPA may have to take if it鈥檚 serious about combating climate change. Emissions have to peak by 2016 to avoid much of the biodiversity loss associated with rising temperatures, a recent study found. And the U.S. still must persuade China and the rest of the world to salvage the sputtering global climate talks. That doesn鈥檛 leave much time.
SPEAK UP! 探花精选 is collecting letters of support for strong carbon regulations on existing power plants. To contribute, visit audubonaction.org/ EPAcomments. |
This story originally ran in the January-February 2014 issue as "Carbon Crackdown."