How to Predict Which Canadian Birds Will Crash Your Feeders This Winter

Thanks to one man's annual Winter Finch Forecast, birders can prepare for any surprise visitors that might swing south during colder months.

Winter is coming鈥攁nd so are some surprise visitors from up north.  

While most avian species migrate south for the season, some Canadian songbirds stay put, filling up on ample amounts of berries, cones, and seeds. Occassionally, they might wander down into the United States, making them a treat for bird lovers during typically quiet months.  

During a normal winter, people in the continental United States can rely on a classic crop of species hanging around their yards and feeders. These include House Sparrows, House Finches, cardinals, jays, Dark-eyed Juncos, Cedar Waxwings, goldfinches, titmice, chickadees, White-breasted Nuthatches, and an assortment of woodpeckers.    

But in certain years, something unusual happens: a phenomenon known as an 鈥渋rruption.鈥 When species that reside in the boreal forest are low on food, they鈥檒l dip into the Lower 48 to stave off hunger. Among those are the northern finches. These birds are not nearly as luminous as Snowy Owls (another irruption special) but they鈥檒l come straight to your feeder as long as it鈥檚 stocked with the right stuff. A good year can bring Evening Grosbeaks to Massachusetts, Common Redpolls to South Dakota, and White-winged Crossbills to Ohio. The trick is to know when and where they plan on showing up.

Luckily, there鈥檚 already a guy who makes those predictions. Since 2012, Ontario ornithologist Ron Pittaway has been putting together an annual 鈥.鈥 Pittaway collects data on the seasonal seed, berry, and cone crops across Canada to determine if there will be enough to sustain the hordes of finches and other passerines that fill the province鈥檚 coniferous forests. When there are widespread crop failures鈥攅ither due to poor climatic conditions or insect outbreaks鈥攈e鈥檒l project an irruption of a handful of species. Pittaway emphasizes that his forecast is an educated guess, but that doesn鈥檛 stop birders from latching onto every word he writes. 鈥淚t whets our appetites for what to look for each winter,鈥 Geoff LeBaron, director of 探花精选鈥檚 Christmas Bird Count, says.

Sadly, 2016 is looking like a slow one for the more exciting finches such as crossbills and redpolls. As Pittaway explains in his forecast, the cone yield was high in northern Ontario and poor along the U.S.-Canada border. Instead of traveling south, the birds are more likely to travel east to west to gorge. And as LeBaron points out, with , the East Coast is less alluring to large flocks of finches.

Still, there are a few fun species to hold out for. Red Crossbills, a sprinkling of White-winged Crossbills, Hoary Redpolls, Pine Grosbeaks, and Evening Grosbeaks might turn up around the Northeastern United States in late November to February. Red-breasted Nuthatches and tricky-to-ID Purple Finches are already moving down the Atlantic Coast. Out West, Bohemian Waxwings could cross the border in search of berries. A nice mix of winter passerines is expected around the Rockies as well.

To make the best of what鈥檚 coming through鈥攁nd hope that they stick around鈥擫eBaron suggests filling up your yard with choice eats. Here鈥檚 a quick list:

  • Black oil sunflower seeds to draw various crossbills, Evening Grosbeaks, and Purple Finches
  • Nyjer (thistle) seeds to attract Common Redpolls
  • Crabapple fruits to pull in Pine Grosbeaks

Suet and mixed seeds, LeBaron says, aren鈥檛 great for northern finch flocks. These birds are highly specialized, and once they find what they like, they鈥檒l indulge until it runs out. 

Another way to track the birds in real time is to use eBird species maps. Simply  to see the latest migration movements across North America. Don鈥檛 forget to input your data, too鈥攊t鈥檚 the best way to learn about the finches' behavior and make your own Pittaway-like prophecies .